F20 — Five-Year P&L

Profit and Loss, Burn and Runway

This page answersWhat does the operating statement look like, and when does it stop consuming cash?

Scenario

Assumptions are shared across every financial page — change one, all outputs recalculate.

171–174 — Annual build

Five-year profit and loss

US$51.0MMODEL OUTPUT

Year-five revenue

US$14.5MMODEL OUTPUT

Year-five EBITDA

28.4%MODEL OUTPUT

Year-five EBITDA margin

US$22.4MMODEL OUTPUT

Peak cumulative cash consumption (36 months)

Year	Users	Merchants	Revenue	Recurring	Gross profit	Operating cost	EBITDA	Margin
Year 1	80,000	1,600	US$5.4M	US$2.7M	US$4.2M	US$11.2M	US$-7.0M	-130.7%
Year 2	148,000	2,960	US$9.0M	US$4.0M	US$7.0M	US$14.7M	US$-7.7M	-85.9%
Year 3	273,800	5,476	US$15.7M	US$6.5M	US$12.2M	US$18.3M	US$-6.0M	-38.4%
Year 4	506,530	10,131	US$28.1M	US$11.0M	US$21.9M	US$21.8M	US$117K	0.4%
Year 5	937,081	18,742	US$51.0M	US$19.4M	US$39.8M	US$25.3M	US$14.5M	28.4%

Ramp assumptions

ASSUMPTION

Year-one share of mature user base8%

Annual growth toward maturity85%

Mature user base1,000,000

Mature fixed operating costUS$22M

Revenue and EBITDA by year

MODEL OUTPUT

Year 1 revenueUS$5.4M

Year 2 revenueUS$9.0M

Year 3 revenueUS$15.7M

Year 4 revenueUS$28.1M

Year 5 revenueUS$51.0M

Year 1 EBITDAUS$-7.0M

Year 2 EBITDAUS$-7.7M

Year 3 EBITDAUS$-6.0M

Year 4 EBITDAUS$117K

Year 5 EBITDAUS$14.5M

175 — Case comparison

Year-five outcome under all three cases

Case	Revenue	Recurring share	Gross profit	EBITDA	EBITDA margin
Conservative	US$6.8M	55.8%	US$4.9M	US$-6.1M	-89.4%
Base	US$51.0M	38.1%	US$39.8M	US$14.5M	28.4%
Scale	US$385.0M	25.6%	US$308.0M	US$197.6M	51.3%

176–177 — Cash

Thirty-six month burn and runway

Monthly EBITDA, months 1–36

MODEL OUTPUTLOW CONFIDENCE

Month 1US$-748K

Month 4US$-707K

Month 7US$-667K

Month 10US$-626K

Month 13US$-585K

Month 16US$-600K

Month 19US$-615K

Month 22US$-629K

Month 25US$-644K

Month 28US$-608K

Month 31US$-573K

Month 34US$-537K

Cash position

MODEL OUTPUT

Measure	Value
Starting capital	US$25.0M
Month-1 net burn	US$748K
Peak cumulative cash consumption	US$22.4M
First EBITDA-positive month	Beyond month 36
Runway at month-1 burn	33 months
Capital shortfall or surplus	US$2.6M

Capital availableUS$25M

This is an illustrative operating model, not a forecast, budget or guidance. The monthly series interpolates between modelled annual outcomes and therefore smooths seasonality that a real pet-travel business would show.

Investor implication

The cash question is decided in the first eighteen months. If peak cumulative consumption of US$22.4M exceeds available capital, the correct response is a slower state rollout — not a higher growth assumption.