F27 — Returns
Investor and Licensor Return Analysis
This page answersWhat return does the capital actually earn?
Assumptions are shared across every financial page — change one, all outputs recalculate.
214–216 — Investor returns
IRR and multiple on invested capital
Investment terms
ASSUMPTIONReturn outputs
Sensitivity
MOIC across exit years and multiples
| Exit multiple | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0× revenue | 1.96× | 1.96× | 1.96× | 1.96× |
| 4.5× revenue | 2.93× | 2.93× | 2.93× | 2.93× |
| 6.0× revenue | 3.91× | 3.91× | 3.91× | 3.91× |
| 8.0× revenue | 5.22× | 5.22× | 5.22× | 5.22× |
| 11.0× revenue | 7.17× | 7.17× | 7.17× | 7.17× |
MOIC is unaffected by exit timing; IRR is not. A 3× return in year three is a materially better outcome than the same multiple in year ten.
217 — Confidence
How much of this should be believed
| Layer of the model | Evidence quality | Treatment |
|---|---|---|
| Market size and growth | HIGH — externally reported | Use as stated |
| Household and pet counts | HIGH — externally reported | Use as stated |
| Insurance premium pool | HIGH — externally reported | Use as stated |
| State and metro estimates | MEDIUM — derived from verified population with stated multipliers | Directional only |
| CAC, retention and conversion | LOW — no U.S. operating history | Test in one metro before scaling |
| Valuation and returns | LOW — dependent on every layer above | Treat as scenario arithmetic |
Return figures are illustrative scenario arithmetic. They are not projections, offers, or an indication that any transaction, return or exit will occur. No reliance should be placed on them for investment purposes.
Investor implication
The returns are attractive only if the low-confidence layer holds. That is why every page in this section exposes its assumptions: the correct investment decision here is a staged one, priced against evidence rather than against the model.
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