F06 — TAM / SAM / SOM
Adjustable Market Sizing Engine
This page answersWhat is genuinely serviceable, and what is genuinely obtainable?
No sizing figure in this platform is fixed. Every filter below is an ASSUMPTION and every output is a MODEL OUTPUT.
105 — Engine
Filters applied in sequence
Assumptions
ASSUMPTIONPurchases or bookings where a search, review or listing influenced the decision.
Share of U.S. spend inside launched states and metros.
Travel, hospitality, services, activities, vet discovery, gear.
A transaction must be completable online for GMV to exist.
Effective market share of bookable pet-friendly transactions.
Model output
106 — Definitions
What each number is, and is not
| Term | This platform's definition | Common misuse |
|---|---|---|
| TAM | All U.S. pet expenditure, verified and reported. | Presented as a company's opportunity. |
| SAM | Spend inside served categories, served geographies and digital discovery. | Set equal to TAM minus a token discount. |
| SOM | Bookable GMV plausibly transacted through PawPals at a stated adoption rate. | Reported as revenue. |
| Revenue | SOM multiplied by the take rate actually charged. | Confused with GMV. |
Sizing waterfall
The same model, drawn
US$158B reported 2025 expenditure
−62.0% vs prior step ·
−54.0% vs prior step ·
−76.0% vs prior step ·
−66.0% vs prior step ·
−94.0% vs prior step ·
−91.0% vs prior step ·
Setting any single filter to zero sets SOM and revenue to zero. That behaviour is intentional: the model must be capable of producing an unattractive answer, otherwise it is marketing rather than analysis.
Investor implication
A serviceable market of US$6.6B against 95,000,000 pet households is a defensible starting point for underwriting. The number that should be challenged first is adoption within bookable spend — it is the only filter here that depends on execution rather than market structure.