F16 — Priority & Efficiency

Which States to Enter, in Which Order

This page answersWhere does each dollar of launch capital work hardest?

Scenario

Assumptions are shared across every financial page — change one, all outputs recalculate.

144–145 — Efficiency

Modelled revenue per dollar of launch cost

Capital efficiency ranking

MODEL OUTPUT

California20.95×

US$55.4M modelled revenue on US$2.6M launch cost

Texas15.52×

US$37.4M modelled revenue on US$2.4M launch cost

Florida11.39×

US$28.9M modelled revenue on US$2.5M launch cost

New York10.47×

US$26.0M modelled revenue on US$2.5M launch cost

Pennsylvania7.40×

US$15.3M modelled revenue on US$2.1M launch cost

Illinois6.79×

US$15.5M modelled revenue on US$2.3M launch cost

Ohio6.77×

US$13.5M modelled revenue on US$2.0M launch cost

North Carolina6.48×

US$13.1M modelled revenue on US$2.0M launch cost

Georgia6.33×

US$13.4M modelled revenue on US$2.1M launch cost

Michigan5.96×

US$11.6M modelled revenue on US$1.9M launch cost

New Jersey5.33×

US$12.1M modelled revenue on US$2.3M launch cost

Virginia5.20×

US$10.9M modelled revenue on US$2.1M launch cost

Opportunity versus cost

MODEL OUTPUT

Efficient — enter firstExpensive but valuableLow value, low costAvoid — costly and thinCA · US$55.4MTX · US$37.4MFL · US$28.9MNY · US$26.0MIL · US$15.5MPA · US$15.3MOH · US$13.5MGA · US$13.4MNC · US$13.1MNJ · US$12.1MMI · US$11.6MVA · US$10.9MWA · US$10.2MMA · US$9.2MAZ · US$9.1MTN · US$8.4MMD · US$7.9MIN · US$7.8MCO · US$7.7MMO · US$7.0M

Monetisation score ↑Launch cost index →

146–147 — Sequencing

Contribution timing by state

State	Estimated market	Launch cost	Modelled annual revenue	Revenue per US$1 of launch cost	Months to cover launch cost
California	US$18.5B	US$2.6M	US$55.4M	20.95×	6
Texas	US$12.5B	US$2.4M	US$37.4M	15.52×	6
Florida	US$9.6B	US$2.5M	US$28.9M	11.39×	6
New York	US$8.7B	US$2.5M	US$26.0M	10.47×	6
Pennsylvania	US$5.1B	US$2.1M	US$15.3M	7.40×	6
Illinois	US$5.2B	US$2.3M	US$15.5M	6.79×	6
Ohio	US$4.5B	US$2.0M	US$13.5M	6.77×	6
North Carolina	US$4.4B	US$2.0M	US$13.1M	6.48×	6
Georgia	US$4.5B	US$2.1M	US$13.4M	6.33×	6
Michigan	US$3.9B	US$1.9M	US$11.6M	5.96×	6
New Jersey	US$4.0B	US$2.3M	US$12.1M	5.33×	6
Virginia	US$3.6B	US$2.1M	US$10.9M	5.20×	6
Washington	US$3.4B	US$2.2M	US$10.2M	4.57×	6
Tennessee	US$2.8B	US$2.0M	US$8.4M	4.18×	6
Arizona	US$3.0B	US$2.2M	US$9.1M	4.18×	6
Indiana	US$2.6B	US$1.9M	US$7.8M	4.17×	6
Massachusetts	US$3.1B	US$2.3M	US$9.2M	3.95×	6
Missouri	US$2.3B	US$1.9M	US$7.0M	3.76×	6
Maryland	US$2.6B	US$2.2M	US$7.9M	3.64×	6
Colorado	US$2.6B	US$2.3M	US$7.7M	3.34×	6

Launch cost is a MODELLED ESTIMATE of US$250,000 fixed entry cost plus a cost index reflecting media pricing, merchant density and field effort. It excludes national platform and engineering cost, which is carried once in the central cost base rather than allocated per state.

Investor implication

The largest state is rarely the most efficient first state. Under most weightings the highest return per dollar of launch capital sits in mid-sized, high-tourism markets where merchant acquisition is cheap and competitive media pricing is low.